Finding the cause of a problem
Symptom, cause, root cause
- The paper usually presents a symptom — sales are below forecast, stock is out on shelves, quality complaints are rising — and asks for a possible cause.
- Three levels, and the marks are in the second and third:
- Symptom — what the business has noticed. "Sales in Belgium are lower than expected."
- Cause — the mechanism producing it. "Households there are spending more of their income on food, so they have less for discretionary items."
- Root cause — why that mechanism was allowed to operate. "The business built its Belgian forecast on New Zealand consumer behaviour without testing local spending conditions."
- Restating the symptom in different words is the single most common Not Achieved answer. "Sales are low because customers are not buying" says nothing.
Where causes come from
- Use the resource, but organise your search. Causes of a complex problem in a global business come from a small number of places:
| Source | Typical causes |
|---|---|
| The market | Falling incomes, inflation, changed tastes, a new competitor, seasonality |
| The supply chain | A supplier failing, congestion, freight delays, intermediaries adding time |
| Production | Design compromised by cost cutting, substandard manufacture, capacity limits |
| Distance and culture | Time zones, language, misread expectations, distributors not managed |
| The business's own decisions | An over-optimistic forecast, a location chosen on cost alone, an investment made without appraisal |
| Regulation and politics | New rules, tariffs, sanctions, consent conditions |
- Look for the business's own decisions. Papers reward candidates who see that a problem the resource presents as external — a distributor underperforming, a port delaying stock — often traces back to a choice the business made.
Writing a cause
- The shape:
- name the cause in the first sentence
- explain the mechanism — the steps between that cause and the symptom the paper described
- anchor it in the resource — quote the figure, the fact or the statement it comes from
- Worked, on an invented resource:
- Resource fact. Rāwhiti Tools (invented) ships from Tauranga to a single distribution centre in Hamburg, which then supplies eleven European countries. Stores in France and Spain report frequent stock-outs.
- Cause. "One possible cause is the distance between the distribution centre and the southern markets. Every order for a French or Spanish store is picked in Hamburg and then trucked more than a thousand kilometres, so the lead time between a store ordering and receiving stock is several days longer than for a German store. Because the stores order only when their shelf stock is low, that extra transit time is enough for the shelf to empty before the replacement arrives."