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Analysing statistical data · Part 3 of 3
6 exam-style questions with model answers, plus 10 quick multi-choice questions — every question on this part of the standard, grouped by the 2 pages of notes they come from.
Write a full answer before you reveal the model one. That comparison is where the learning happens.
Explain what extrapolation means, and state the three requirements the Excellence criterion places on the forecast.
A student forecasts that New Zealand's unemployment rate will rise, based only on the fact that unemployment has been rising for six quarters.
Explain in detail why this does not meet the Excellence criterion, and what would need to be added.
Your two issues are inflation and the Official Cash Rate. Inflation has fallen from 6.8% to 3.1% over eight quarters, and the OCR has been held at 5.5% for the past four quarters after rising steadily before that.
Make a justified forecast for inflation, using extrapolated data from both issues, and discuss the limitations of your forecast.
(Figures are invented, for method only.)
State the three things AS91226 requires for Achieved, and state what Excellence adds.
Explain in detail the difference between describing data and explaining it, and why this distinction determines the grade in AS91226.
Two students submit AS91226 reports. Student A submits twenty pages with extensive data, many graphs and long descriptions. Student B submits eight pages with four graphs, but every relationship is explained with a named model and the forecast uses both issues.
Compare and contrast the two reports against the criteria, and give a reasoned judgement about which is likely to achieve the higher grade and what each student should do differently.